What moved in real estate, Sep 1–7, 2026

Rates went up, and it's about oil, not the Fed. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed at 6.71% on Thursday, up from 6.66% the week before and the highest it's been since July 2025. The reason has almost nothing to do with the Federal Reserve. Renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude back over $95 a barrel, and the 10-year Treasury — which is what mortgage rates actually track — closed at its highest level since January 2025. Bankrate's panel of rate watchers this week was 83% "rates go up," 0% "rates go down." I don't say that to scare anyone. I say it because if your plan has been to wait for a big drop, that plan currently has nothing behind it.

Friday's jobs report made a September rate cut even less likely. The economy added 162,000 jobs in August against expectations of about 53,000, and unemployment held at 4.1%. The Fed hasn't cut once in 2026 — it's held steady at all five meetings this year — and after a number like that, the conversation heading into the September 16 meeting is whether they *raise*. Mortgage rates barely moved on the news, which tells you the bond market had already priced most of this in.

Buyers have the most choice they've had in four years. Redfin's latest weekly numbers show new listings hitting a four-year high, while pending sales sat flat and fell to their lowest point since February. One in five active listings nationally now has a price cut on it — 20.4% in August, the first time that's matched last year's rate all year. Sale prices are still up 2.2% from a year ago, but asking prices actually slipped slightly year over year. Sellers are adjusting. If you've spent the last few years losing houses to bidding wars, this is a different market than the one that beat you.

New construction is where the deals are right now. Builders are sitting on 9.6 months of supply, the most since 2009, when 4 to 6 months is considered normal. About 37% cut prices in July and roughly 63% are offering incentives — rate buydowns, closing cost credits, design center money. If new construction has ever been on your list, builder incentives are as aggressive as I've seen them.

Locally, another quiet week. Nothing new published from MIBOR, IBJ, or the other local sources since last Monday. August numbers should come out around September 11. The most recent verified read is still July: median price held at $324,000, closed sales were down 10% from June, homes took an average of 21 days to sell, and total inventory pushed to just under 8,000 homes — the highest in almost a decade. Prices holding while inventory hits a ten-year high is the interesting part. Central Indiana keeps behaving differently than the national headlines.