What moved in real estate, Aug 25–31, 2026

Rates: the "cuts are coming" story just took a hit. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech last Friday to say inflation is still running too hot, and the market now puts the odds of a September rate hike at around 58%. That doesn't mean your mortgage rate is about to spike — longer-term rates barely moved after the speech — but it does mean the "just wait, rates are dropping" plan is on shakier ground. The 30-year is sitting around 6.6%–6.9%, close to its highest point in over a year. If you've been waiting on the sidelines for a big rate drop, I wouldn't bank on it happening soon.

Buyers are getting real leverage again. Redfin's latest numbers show new listings just hit a 4-month high, while pending sales dropped to their lowest point in six months. Translation: more homes to choose from, fewer people racing to buy them. Prices are still up nationally (median sale price is up almost 2% year over year, north of $400,000), but sellers are having to work harder for it — more negotiating room, more concessions, less of the bidding-war chaos from the past couple years. If you're a buyer who's felt priced out or out-competed, this is the most favorable stretch we've seen in a while.

New construction is even more aggressive. Builders are sitting on 9.6 months of supply — well above the 4-6 months that's considered normal — and July new-home sales dropped over 10% from June. That's pushing builders to lean hard on price cuts and rate buydowns to move inventory. If new construction has ever been on your radar, incentives right now are about as good as they get.

Locally, it's a quiet week. No fresh numbers came out of MIBOR, IBJ, or the usual local sources since last week. The most recent official read is still June's: median sale price across the 16-county Central Indiana region hit $323,250, an all-time high for our market. I'll have updated local numbers as soon as they're published — usually the second Friday of the month.