What moved in real estate, Sep 8–14, 2026

Rates: you'll see two different numbers this week, and both are right. Freddie Mac's weekly survey came in Thursday at 6.76% on the 30-year fixed, up from 6.71% and the highest in a year. But Mortgage News Daily, which tracks rates in real time instead of averaging the week, had Thursday at 7.07% — the first time we've seen a 7 in front since last summer. The cause wasn't the Fed. Oil is running near $99 a barrel, a hot wholesale inflation number landed, and the 10-year Treasury — what mortgage rates actually follow — jumped to its highest level since October 2023. If you got pre-approved in August, your payment math has changed. Worth re-running before you go back out looking.

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and the market is betting on a hike. Not a cut — a hike. The Fed has held at 3.50%–3.75% all year without cutting once, and depending on which market you look at, odds of a quarter-point increase this week run somewhere between 58% and 83%. Goldman and J.P. Morgan both moved their forecasts to include it. I bring it up because a lot of people are still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the Fed to make buying cheaper, and right now there's nothing behind that plan.

Buyers have more room than they've had in ten years. August existing-home sales fell to a 3.98 million annual pace, the slowest in 14 months. But look at the supply side: 1.62 million homes for sale, a 4.9-month supply, the highest in more than a decade. Roughly 59.5% of homes sold in August went for less than the original asking price, and new listings hit a four-year high. Prices are still up — the national median was $429,100, up 1.6% from last year. So this isn't a crash. It's the first market in years where a buyer can ask for something and get it.

Builders are still the softest spot, which makes them the best place to negotiate. August was the sixteenth straight month of weak builder confidence, with 35% of builders cutting prices — averaging about 6% off — and 63% offering incentives like rate buydowns and closing cost credits. If new construction has been on your list, this is as aggressive as I've seen builders get.

Locally, MIBOR's August numbers came out Thursday and Central Indiana is still holding up better than the national story. Median single-family price across the 17-county area was $327,250, up 2.6% from last August. Pending sales were up 4.7% — the sixth straight month of growth — even though closed sales fell 5.2%. Inventory rose 14% to 6,941 homes, which is a 2.5-month supply, and homes took a median 23 days to go under contract, up from 17 a year ago. Sellers still got 98.2% of asking price. One thing worth knowing: Indiana ranked third in the country for home price appreciation this month at 5.3% year over year. When you read a national headline about prices falling, that's Texas, Colorado and Florida, not here.