Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying a house?
If you're otherwise ready to buy, wait only if your timeline is truly flexible, because nobody can tell you where rates will be next year, me included. Freddie Mac's weekly average for the 30-year fixed was 7.24% on October 29, 2026, and each half-point drop is worth roughly $115 to $120 a month on a $350,000 loan. Central Indiana homes are also taking longer to sell than a year ago, and a seller-paid rate buydown can get you some of that savings today.
Numbers as of October 29, 2026 (Freddie Mac), October 25, 2026 (Redfin) and September 2026 (MIBOR). Updated monthly when new MIBOR numbers come out.
Search every home on the MIBOR BLC with my RealScout search, then run the real monthly payment with Indiana property taxes included.
What does a rate drop actually save?
On a $350,000, 30-year loan, each half-point drop in the rate saves roughly $115 to $120 a month in principal and interest. Going all the way from 7.24% back to the 6.17% of a year earlier would save about $248 a month.
Principal and interest on a $350,000, 30-year fixed loan (taxes and insurance not included):
| Rate | Monthly P&I | vs. 7.24% |
|---|---|---|
| 7.24% (Freddie Mac, Oct 29, 2026) | $2,385 | — |
| 6.74% | $2,268 | $117 less |
| 6.24% | $2,153 | $232 less |
| 6.17% (Freddie Mac, a year earlier) | $2,137 | $248 less |
That's real money. But it has to be weighed against what happens while you wait: another year of rent, and the chance that prices or competition move against you if rates do fall and more buyers come back at once.
Why might now be a better time to negotiate?
Because fewer people are buying. Nationally, Redfin counted the fewest pending sales in its records, which go back to 2021, for the four weeks ending October 25, 2026, down 15.9% from a year earlier. Locally, MIBOR's September report showed the median Central Indiana home taking 27 days to sell, up from 20 a year earlier, with about 16% more homes for sale than a year ago. In my experience, homes that sit are where sellers say yes to credits.
How can I lower my payment without waiting?
You can lower it now with seller or builder money toward your rate, or with down payment help.
- Ask the seller to pay for a rate buydown. Instead of a price cut, the seller credits money your lender uses to lower your rate, either for the first year or two (a temporary buydown) or for the life of the loan. Your loan officer can price both.
- Look at builder incentives. In my experience, builders with finished inventory are often the most willing to pay for a lower rate. My New Home Builds search shows quick move-in homes across the area.
- Check down payment help. See Indiana down payment assistance for the programs and who qualifies.
- Plan to refinance only if it pencils out. A refinance has its own closing costs and isn't guaranteed. Buy a payment you can live with at today's rate.
When does waiting make sense?
If you're not ready on the other fronts. Shaky job situation, thin savings after the down payment, or not sure you'll stay put five years? Those are better reasons to wait than a rate guess. Run your own numbers in my rent vs. buy calculator and the mortgage calculator, which includes Indiana property taxes.
Sources
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct 29, 2026: 7.24%; year earlier 6.17%)
- Redfin housing market update, four weeks ending Oct 25, 2026
- MIBOR monthly market report, September 2026
Search every home on the MIBOR BLC with my RealScout search, then run the real monthly payment with Indiana property taxes included.
Trueblood Real Estate, Fishers, Indiana · License RB18001276. Before real estate I spent about ten years as project manager and designer for a Hamilton County custom home builder (Purdue, construction engineering management). 5.0 stars on Google and Zillow. More about me · Client reviews
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