What moved in real estate, Sep 21–27, 2026

Rates: the 7% line got crossed, and it's for real. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% on Thursday, up from 6.95% the week before. That's the first time it's been over 7% since January 2025. The 15-year moved to 6.42%. On a $350,000 loan, that's about $2,336 a month in principal and interest, roughly $75 more than at the start of the month and $169 more than a year ago. It may already be worse than that number suggests: daily rate trackers had the 30-year at 7.24% by Thursday, as the 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.96% on Monday to 5.18% on Thursday. If you got a rate quote earlier in the week, get a new one before you compare anything.

New construction is where builders are actually giving ground. New-home sales rose 6.4% in August, but the average price on those homes fell 8.8% year over year, down to $478,700. Thirty-eight percent of builders are cutting prices outright, and 66% are throwing in incentives, the highest share since December. If a resale payment doesn't work at 7%, new construction is the real relief valve right now, and resale sellers are competing with those price cuts whether they realize it or not.

A new study makes the case for a coming-soon launch. ARELLO, the national association of state real estate license regulators, looked at sales from 2024 to 2026. Homes that started as "coming soon" and then went live on the MLS sold for up to $7,000 more than listings that went active right away. Listings that looked like private sales, going under contract or closing within a day of showing up in the MLS, sold for $3,000 to $4,000 less. That's a correlation, not proof, but the pattern held across price ranges and market types. More buyers seeing a house tends to mean a better price.

Locally, builders are moving the opposite direction of the rest of the country. Central Indiana builders filed 953 single-family permits in August, up 7% from a year ago and the third straight month of gains, with Hamilton County leading. That's the reverse of the national trend, where permits fell. On the resale side, MIBOR hasn't published anything new this week, so the latest official read is still August: median price $327,250, up 2.6% year over year, pending sales up 4.7%, and homes taking a median 23 days to go under contract. September's numbers land around October 9.